It was definitely anti-climactic. UN climate negotiations came to a close at about 4am Saturday morning without much fanfare, without much hype.
Going through the list of accomplishments reached at the Poznan conference it's actually quite fitting that the conference ended the way it did.
Reports trickled through an email listserv in the early hours of the morning indicating that:
- Agreement was reached to move to full negotiating mode, 'in order to shape an ambitious and effective international response to climate change, to be agreed in Copenhagen at the end of 2009';
- Parties endorsed the Global Environment Facility's "Poznań Strategic Programme on Technology Transfer" (increases investment for mitigation and adaptation technologies);
- Parties agreed to the final pieces of the Kyoto Protocol's adaptation fund, enabling the fund to receive projects in the course of 2009. Parties agreed that the fund (CDM), fed by a share of proceeds from the Kyoto Protocol's clean development mechanism and voluntary contributions, would have a legal capacity granting developing countries direct access;
- Additionally, progress was made on issues relating to adaptation, finance, technology, and REDD;
Unfortunately, there is little substance to these achievements... at least in the context of the work that still needs to be done.
A deal for a post-2012 agreement must be finished in Copenhagen. And while it's all well and good that parties have agreed to shift to "full negotiations mode" (what, I ask, were they doing before?) the most politically charged and controversial issues are still left hanging in the air.
Most notably, the issue of whether industrialized countries will set quantifiable emission targets and whether these countries will assist least developed countries through technology transfer mechanisms, remains to be seen.
Sitting in a number of sessions, listening to NGO debriefs and talking with delegates, it's clear that there was an overarching reluctance to make substantial moves in Poznan. Many countries (particularly the rich countries) are waiting to see how the negotiations will shift once President-elect Barack Obama takes the helm.
Whether U.S. influence on these negotiations is real, or whether the changing tide of American politics is being used as a scapegoat by rich countries to stall the process, remains to be seen. Regardless, it's quite clear that Obama's promises to get aggressive on climate change and the message of hope that resonated so quickly throughout the world was present in Poznan - from opening addresses noting the latest U.S. election on day 1 to the hoards of young people chanting 'Yes We Can' during an unofficial action in the conference centre on day 12.
Failing to make substantial progress on a new deal in Poznan, 2009 is shaping up to be the most important year of climate negotiations in history. So much rides on the next 12 months and it's vitally important to stay closely tuned to these developments.
There are four major UNFCCC gatherings scheduled for 2009. The first two are being held in Bonn (March 29 - April 8 and June 1-12), the third will be held in August/September and the fourth will be in December in Copenhagen.
For more info on upcoming UN climate talks, click here.
